Journal Article
No. 2015-9 | March 25, 2015
Finn Marten Körner and Hans-Michael Trautwein
Sovereign Credit Ratings and the Transnationalization of Finance – Evidence from a Gravity Model of Portfolio Investment
(Published in Distance and Border Effects in Economics)

Abstract

It is a matter of debate in how far credit ratings contribute to allocative efficiency or to excessive volatility of asset prices and cross-border capital flows. Yet it is generally taken for granted that ratings play a significant role in the transnationalization of financial relations. This paper tests that hypothesis with data on sovereign credit ratings and foreign portfolio investment. A rating-related gravity model of finance is derived from the choice-theoretical framework of Okawa and van Wincoop (Gravity in International Finance, 2012) and estimated in three stages. At the first stage, the authors find that the introduction and evolution of sovereign ratings since the 1970s has affected inward portfolio investment in host countries. At the second stage, they examine to which extent sovereign ratings help to predict the degree of investors’ home bias, and whether they can account for the divergent dynamics before and after the global financial crisis. At the third stage, the authors look at the explanatory content of ratings for the determination of the size of bilateral portfolio investment. Evidence for a significant role of sovereign ratings is found at all three stages.

Data Set

JEL Classification:

F41, F65, G11, G24

Links

Cite As

Finn Marten Körner and Hans-Michael Trautwein (2015). Sovereign Credit Ratings and the Transnationalization of Finance – Evidence from a Gravity Model of Portfolio Investment. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 9 (2015-9): 1–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-9