Journal Article

No. 2014-27 | August 13, 2014
How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty? PDF Icon


An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

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Ray C. Fair (2014). How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty? Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 8 (2014-27): 1—22.


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