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comment.2008-02-15.0417782590


Comments on Hillinger paper


Thomas Mayer

see attached file


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Comments and Questions


Claude Hillinger - Reply
February 22, 2008 - 14:42

See attached file.


Gerhard Schroeder - economics as science
February 22, 2008 - 15:25

reg. 2. (Ideology): I may refer to the christian contribution to economy politics, the socalled social theory or doctrine furnished by protestant and catholic papers (EKD 1997, Deus Caritas Est 2005):
In „old (continental) Europe“ this thinking it is not ideology, we call it more decent „tendency“ literature or ...[more]

... doctrine and for sure it is not simply right or left / western or eastern.

reg. 4. (methodology). Of course, each field has its own methodogy. However the same, common established proof theory (Einstein, Popper, Kurt Schuette, others) should be applied which is
Hypothesis > Test > Proof or Findings > Theory > Proof
As long as economic science deals with models and theories it should be methodolical clean. Which is not the case often. The way computing socalled fair values violates
The problem of economists is that their science is partly prognosis, forecasting. There is in between quite some maths involved to promote forecasting. However, the GARCH-forecasting technique (or better named industry) is scientificly reading tea leaves. One can say the better the model the better the results. It's not my field but I think it's the same considering econometry. There is quite a number of institutions that try on economic cycles – again it is rather an industry than science.

reg. 5 (pro-market): It's not only Chicago, it's also the original neoliberal circle in Vienna, Freiburg and London that promoted the market idea. And to be fair: global trading and markets was a fundamental idea of the British Empire (weakend by the tea plantages and the drug infiltration) in controversy to the Netherlands' approach of drawing taxes from their colonies.

reg. 6 (empirical evidence): Yes, that's the way and sticking on assuptions made. Unfortunately the empirical evidence of forecasting is possible only after the fact, ex post - too late for political advice.