Discussion Paper
No. 2019-60 | November 13, 2019
Tam NguyenHuu and Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal
A new and benign hegemon on the horizon? The Chinese century and growth in the Global South
(Published in Recent developments in international economics)

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of trade with China on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Global South. While the current literature on the growth impacts of trade (by leading partner countries) often neglects the properties of macro panel data, such as cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity and structural breaks, our models take these features into account. The empirical results of 22 major developing countries over 2000Q1 to 2016Q4 find positive contributions of imports from China to GDP in our studied sample, although the magnitude of these effects is smaller than that of other emerging and developing economies (not including China) (EDE) and advanced economies (AdE). The authors also show that, in contrast with considerable impacts of exports to EDE and AdE, exports to China have limited effects on the growth of its partners. However, the recent financial crisis marks a turning point of China’s role as a major driver of growth in the South. Namely, while contributions of trade with China in its partners after the global crisis are on the rise, the opposite is true for EDE and AdE. Examining the effects by individual countries, they present that the distance between China and its partners and economic development level of its partners are almost irrelevant to the contributions of imports from China to its partners’ growth. They provide some important policy recommendations for the Global South from these findings.

JEL Classification:

C23, F43, O4

Links

Cite As

[Please cite the corresponding journal article] Tam NguyenHuu and Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal (2019). A new and benign hegemon on the horizon? The Chinese century and growth in the Global South. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2019-60, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2019-60


Comments and Questions



Anonymous - Referee Report 1
January 10, 2020 - 13:12
See attached file

Tam NguyenHuua and Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal - Response to Referee 1
April 01, 2020 - 10:44
see attached file

Oscar Bajo-Rubio - comment
February 26, 2020 - 18:35
The authors have produced a worthy paper on an interesting topic. Hence, these comments should be seen accordingly. The paper is basically empirical, if not empiricist. The theoretical basis of the analysis are very vague, and the literature review lacks in my view a recapitulation beyond the detailed comment of the different (empirical) papers. On the other hand, I have no doubt on the econometric skills of the authors. Maybe my comments on this regard are old-fashioned, but it seems to me that economics looks drowned in the deep sea of econometrics. The conclusions are interesting and plausible, but the authors should be aware that pretending to explain growth simply by exports and imports to and from different areas, might be quite a narrow explanation. At most, they could talk about “correlations” with growth, rather than thinking of “determinants” of growth. Certainly, the authors add capital and labour in the last table. However, growth is a complex phenomenon that, without a clear theoretical model behind, can be explained by many factors, with the empirical proxies of those factors frequently correlated among them.

Tam NguyenHuua and Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal - Response to Oscar Bajo-Rubio
April 01, 2020 - 10:51
see attached file

Anonymous - Referee Report 2
February 28, 2020 - 09:30
See attached file

Tam NguyenHuua and Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal - Response to Referee 2
April 01, 2020 - 10:46
see attached file

Tam NguyenHuua and Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal - Revised Version
April 01, 2020 - 10:49
see attached file