Discussion Paper

No. 2019-32 | May 06, 2019
Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty

Abstract

To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set-up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two experiments, the authors observe that quick consensus emerges early yielding pronounced mispricing, which however do not show the standard “bubble-and-crash”. The set-up is implemented within the xYotta collaborative platform (https://xyotta.com). xYotta’s functionality offers a large number of extensions of various complexity such as running several parallel markets with the same or different users, as well as collaborative project development in which projects undergo the equivalent of an IPO (initial public offering) and whose subsequent trading matches the role of financial markets in determining value. xYotta is thus offered to researchers as an open source software for the broad investigation of complex systems with human participants.

JEL Classification:

C90, D47, D80

Assessment

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Links

Cite As

Didier Sornette, Sandra Andraszewicz, Ke Wu, Ryan O. Murphy, Philipp Rindler, and Dorsa Sanadgol (2019). Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2019-32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2019-32


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