Discussion Paper

No. 2014-48 | November 21, 2014
Integration of Biophysical and Agro-economic Models to Assess the Economic Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Review of Global and EU Regional Approaches

Abstract

The economic effects of climate change on agriculture have been widely assessed in the last two decades. Many of these assessments are based on the integration of biophysical and agro-economic models, allowing to understand the physical and socio-economic responses of the agricultural sector to future climate change scenarios. The evolution of the bio-economic approach has gone through different stages. This review analyses its evolution: firstly, framing the bio-economic approach into the context of the assessments of climate change impacts, and secondly, by reviewing empirical studies at the global and European level. Based on this review, common findings emerge in both global and regional assessments. Among them, the authors show that overall results tend to hide significant disparities on smaller spatial scales. Furthermore, due to the effects of crop prices over yield changes, several authors highlight the need to consider endogenous price models to assess production impacts of climate change. Further, major developments are discussed: the progress made since the last two decades and the recent methods used to provide insights into modeling uncertainties. However, there are still challenges to be met. On this matter, the authors take these unresolved challenges as guidelines for future research.

JEL Classification:

C63, Q10, Q11, Q17, Q54

Assessment

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Links

Cite As

Francisco J. Fernández and Maria Blanco (2014). Integration of Biophysical and Agro-economic Models to Assess the Economic Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Review of Global and EU Regional Approaches. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2014-48, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2014-48


Comments and Questions


saparuddin mukhtar - Great
November 23, 2014 - 05:02

This study is very interesting, because it is associated with the sustainability of the agricultural sector ditengan worsening environmental crisis. input and ideas from articles have extended the scientific aspects, especially bio-economy.


Roberto Ponce - Comment
December 30, 2014 - 13:55

It is a very interesting article, it's well structured and with an updated review of the relevant literature. The article provides a good start for scholars interested in going deeper within the agro-economic modeling of climate change impacts.

Nevertheless the article presents a nice review of the existing ...[more]

... literature, I miss some original ideas from the authors. It would be nice if authors could include, within the conclusion section, a couple of paragraphs regarding the limitations of the agro-economic modeling approach, and how this approach (based on the agent’s optimal response) could be included within a broader approach (i.e robust decision making) to assess climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture.


Anonymous - Referee Report 1
January 08, 2015 - 11:21

See attached file


Anonymous - Reply to Referee 1
January 20, 2015 - 22:03

Please, see the attached file


Anonymous - Referee Report 2
January 16, 2015 - 11:07

See attached file


Anonymous - Reply to Referee 2 _ Appendix
January 28, 2015 - 11:52

Appendix with two tables:

Annex 1: Global and EU regional economic assessments previous to RCPs and SSPs scenarios

Annex 2: Global and EU regional economic assessments post RCPs and SSPs scenarios


Anonymous - Reply to Referee 2 _ Report
January 28, 2015 - 14:36

Please, see the attached file