Discussion Paper

No. 2013-16 | February 21, 2013
Russia's Food Security and Climate Change: Looking into the Future
(Published in Special Issue Food Security and Climate Change)

Abstract

Global climate change presents long-term risks to agriculture. In general, global climate change is expected to positively affect Russian agriculture. In high and middle latitudes, global warming would expand the growing season. Acreages of agricultural crops may expand toward the north, although yields would likely be lower due to less fertile soil. However, in the south there is a possibility of drier climate, which has a negative impact on crop yields and livestock productivity. In addition, climate change is expected to increase the scarcity of water resources and encourage weed and pest proliferation, and it is expected to increase the short-term risks associated with an increase in extreme weather events and natural disasters. This paper uses data on current conditions to simulate future scenarios and examine possible impacts on crop production in the Russian Federation. It also considers adaptive measures for agriculture in response to climate change.

Paper submitted to the special issue
Food Security and Climate Change

JEL Classification

Q17 Q18 Q24 Q25 Q54

Cite As

Sergey Kiselev, Roman Romashkin, Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, and Amanda Palazzo (2013). Russia's Food Security and Climate Change: Looking into the Future. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2013-16, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-16

Assessment



Comments and Questions


Eugenia Serova, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - Reader report
March 06, 2013 - 12:40

The paper discusses the impact of global climate change on Russia’s production of five key crops in the first half of 21 century. The paper is rich with various kind of information regarding Russia’s agriculture and general economic development. Also the results of simulations with the global climate ...[more]

... change models for Russia are presented in a good visible way.

However, the paper does not look consistent and coherent. The first, descriptive, part of it is very little connected with a part, presenting the results of simulations, and the conclusions are almost not based on both of these parts. The sections on population, GDP, incomes trends are interesting per se (although in some places slightly doubtful), but very little are linked with the title of the paper

The major conclusion of positive general impact of the global climate change on Russia’s agriculture is not very justified by the findings of the paper which deals only with 5 crops, for two of which Russia will be increasingly a net importer, in accordance with scenario analysis presented by the authors. Livestock sector impact is not analysed and this is a half of Russia’s agriculture. Also impact of predicted by the authors increase in numbers of the extreme weather events due to climate change is neglected.

The paper request a serious editing.

There are several minor comments which we inserted into the original text of the paper (see attached file).


Gbadebo Odularu - Reader comment
March 08, 2013 - 11:09

see attached file


Anonymous - Referee Report 1
April 03, 2013 - 10:33

see attached file


Elvira Gabdrafikova - Reader comment
April 08, 2013 - 09:47

In my opinion, the article discusses the referred issues in full. The first part of the one is an analysis of the current situation (the analysis of the population, income, climate, land use and the rural economy), which allowed the authors to conduct scenario analysis of climate change and, therefore, ...[more]

... possibilities of Agriculture of the Russian Federation in the second part. However, I believe that some of the information given in the first part is excessive for the purposes of this article.


Evgeny Rubinchik - from grateful reader
April 09, 2013 - 16:09

The discussion paper provides fundamentals for in-depth understanding of two main issues within agriculture in Russia: national food security and climate changes.
First (out of 4) part of the paper could become source of general information on population trends, income size and distribution, foreign trade activity, which is familiar ...[more]

... to local Russian agriculture economists, although it is valuable and practicable in global context. Climate changes review (in cope with Agricultural emission part #4) part is remarkably new, high potential and challenging for Russian studies. It is a real substantial contribution, done by the authors.
IMHO models application towards biophysical and socioeconomic scenarios realized at high professional level. IMPACT crop scenarios analysis results for wheat (grain production at 150 mln Mt) seem in line with Russian Government targets of 115 Mln Mt by 2020, thou results for sugar are rather disappointing (quote from p.40: Despite the growth of sugar beet production, Russia will remain a net importer of sugar).
The only revision suggestion is minor change of part #1 structure. Climate change paragraph should be placed in the end of the part as it is located just in between Income part and Vulnerability part that is also fully devoted to income agenda.