Discussion Paper

No. 2011-39 | September 15, 2011
The Social Cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 Model
(Published in Special Issue The Social Cost of Carbon)

Abstract

A new version of the PAGE integrated assessment model, PAGE09, is introduced. The most important scientific, impact, emission and adaptation inputs in the latest default version of the model, PAGE09 v1.7 are described. The scientific and economic impact results are presented for a business as usual (BAU) emissions scenario, and for a low emissions scenario which aims to have a 50% chance of keeping the rise in global mean temperatures below 2 degC. Today’s mean social cost of CO2 is about $100 per tonne of CO2 in the BAU scenario, and about $50 per tonne in the low emissions scenario. The major influences on the SCCO2 are found to be the transient climate response, the pure time preference rate, the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, the feedback response time of the earth and the weight on non‐economic impacts. Less than 10% of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in annex 1 from annex 1 emissions, while over 45% comes from impacts in the rest of the world (RoW) from RoW emissions. About one third of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in the RoW caused by emissions in annex 1, while just over 10% comes from impacts in annex 1 caused by emissions in the RoW.

Paper submitted to the special issue
The Social Cost of Carbon
 

JEL Classification

Q51 Q54 Q58

Cite As

Chris W. Hope (2011). The Social Cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 Model. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2011-39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2011-39

Assessment



Comments and Questions


Anonymous - Referee Report 1
November 14, 2011 - 12:08

See attached file


Chris Hope - Reply to Referee Report 1
November 24, 2011 - 17:57

See attached file


Anonymous - Referee Report 2
April 02, 2012 - 10:46

see attached file


Chris Hope - Reply to Referee Report 2
April 25, 2012 - 13:28

See attached file


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