Discussion Paper
No. 2009-48 | November 11, 2009
Markus Pasche
Fundamental Uncertainty, Portfolio Choice, and Liquidity Preference Theory
(Published in Managing Financial Instability in Capitalist Economies)

Abstract

One of Keynes’ core issues in his liquidity preference theory is how fundamental uncertainty affects the propensity to hold money as a liquid asset. The paper critically assesses various formal representations of fundamental uncertainty and provides an argument for a more bounded rational approach to portfolio choice between liquidity and risky assets. The choice is made on the basis of individual beliefs which are subject to mental representations of the underlying economic structure. Self-consciousness arises when the agent is aware of the fact that beliefs are dispersed among agents due to the absence of a “true” model. Responding to this fact by increasing liquidity preference is rationalized by the higher ex post performance of choice. Moreover, we analyze the case that the portfolio is partially financed by debt. It is explored how fundamental uncertainty affects the volume of the portfolio and hence money and credit demand as well as the probability of debt failures.  Submitted to the special issue Managing Financial Instability in Capitalist Economies  

JEL Classification:

B31, D81, E41, G11

Cite As

Markus Pasche (2009). Fundamental Uncertainty, Portfolio Choice, and Liquidity Preference Theory. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2009-48, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2009-48


Comments and Questions



Anonymous - Referee Report 1
December 15, 2009 - 10:55
see attached file

Markus Pasche - Reply to report #1
December 18, 2009 - 10:57
see attached file

Anonymous - Report
December 28, 2009 - 10:23
see attached file

Anonymous - Reply to report
February 17, 2010 - 12:52
see attached file

Anonymous - Referee Report 2
January 06, 2010 - 10:58
see attached file

Markus Pasche - Reply to Report #2
February 17, 2010 - 09:51
Download attached file