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Discussion Papers

2008-18
Genaro Sucarrat
Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability
April 23, 2008

Abstract

A practice that has become widespread is that of comparing forecasts of financial return variability obtained from discrete time models against high frequency estimates based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial return variability modelling this raises several methodological and practical issues, which suggests an alternative framework is needed. The contribution of this study is twofold. First, the finite sample properties of operational and practical procedures for the forecast evaluation of explanatory discrete time models of financial return variability are studied. Second, with basis in the simulation results a simple framework is proposed and illustrated.

Paper submitted to the special issue “Using Econometrics for Assessing Economic Models” edited by Katarina Juselius.

JEL Classification

C52 C53 F31 F37

Citation

Genaro Sucarrat (2008). Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2008-18. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2008-18

Assessment

Downloads: 322


Comments and Questions


Referee Report - Anonymous - June 06, 2008 - 13:58

See attached file


Response to referee 1 - Genaro Sucarrat - July 09, 2008 - 13:38


Referee Report - Anonymous - June 11, 2008 - 14:23

See attached file


Response to referee 2 - Genaro Sucarrat - July 09, 2008 - 13:43


Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability - Anonymous - June 18, 2008 - 18:53

see attached file.


Response to comment 1 - Genaro Sucarrat - July 09, 2008 - 13:45